OBJ/Jonathan: Is the romance over?

It is no longer news that all is not well between the former President, Olusegun Obasanjo and his ‘political son’, President Goodluck Jonathan. Exactly where, when and how things went sour is still largely a matter of conjecture. On one hand, there are those who believe that the seeming face-off might not be unconnected with the 2015 power game. Jonathan is said to be interested in being re-elected in 2015, but Obasanjo is covertly opposed to it. On the other hand, some political pundits see the silent war as an attempt to checkmate Obasanjo’s overbearing influence on the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) nay Jonathan’s administration. Either way, the obvious fact is that things are rapidly falling apart, even though there have been several denials from official quarters. But for those who can read between the lines, what is coming from Obasanjo in recent times is far less than a kind of nodding approval you get from a father whose son is doing well.
The latest in the power game intrigues is his public comment on the state of insecurity in the nation, which suggests that the government has not been proactive or decisive enough in the handling of Boko Haram insurgency. Obasanjo had in a recent statement suggested that the same treatment meted out to Odi and Zaki Biam by the military during his tenure be applied in the northern part of the country in tackling the Boko Haram insurgency. He believes that the present Boko Haram insurgency and the pervading insecurity in the country could have been effectively tackled if decisive action had been taken by the Jonathan administration.
At the 40th anniversary of Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor’s call to ministry at the Word of Life Bible Church, Obasanjo said, “They (Boko Haram) stated their grievances and I promised to relay them to the authorities in power, because that was the best I could do. I did report. But my fear at that time is still my fear till today. When you have a sore and fail to attend to it quickly, it festers and grows to become something else. Whichever way, you just have to attend to it. Don’t leave it unattended to. On two occasions, I had to attend to the problem I faced at that time. I sent soldiers to a place and 19 of them were killed. If I had allowed that to continue, I will not have authority to send security whether police, soldier and any force anywhere again. So, I had to nip it in the bud and that was the end of that particular problem.
The terrorists were either killed and those that were not killed fled their operational base in Odi. They were uprooted, weakened, demoralised and completely dispersed. That was the purpose of the whole exercise and that purpose was achieved,” Obasanjo boasted. Reticent as President Jonathan is, he could not contain Obasanjo’s affront. Accordingly, he gave it back to him in full measure during the monthly interactive media programme. Expressing his open disagreement with the former president’s postulation, he said, “The tragedy, which happened on November 20, 1999 led to the killing of many persons in the Bayelsa State community. After that invasion, the governor and I visited Odi. And we saw some dead people mainly old men and women and also children. None of those militants was killed. None was killed. So, bombarding Odi was to solve the problem but it never solved it. If the attack on Odi had solved the issue of militancy in the Niger Delta, the Yar’Adua government, in which I had the privilege of being the Vice President, wouldn’t have come up with the amnesty programme. So, that should tell you that the attack on Odi never solved the militancy problems. People will even tell you that rather it escalated it. It attracted international sympathy and we had lots of challenges after that attack on Odi.” This open disagreement is apparently the anti-climax of the crisis of confidence between these two political heavy weights.
Prior to this time, Obasanjo had on several occasions taken a swipe on the Jonathan administration for wasting the country’s foreign reserve, which he put at about $35 billion in 2007. In one of his comments at an international forum, he said, “We left what we call excess crude oil account of $35 billion. Within three years, the $35 billion disappeared. Whether the money disappeared or, like the governor said, it was shared, the fact remains that $35 billion disappeared from the foreign reserve I left behind in office. When we left that money, we thought we were leaving it for the rainy day. But my brother said the rain is not falling now. But the fact is that when the rain is falling, we will have nothing to cover our heads with because we have blown it off.
The Chinese do not think that way.” Again, on November 11, when he spoke in Dakar, Senegal, about the alarming rate of unemployment in the country, he did not mince words, saying that the country was sitting on a time bomb. He told his audience at an entrepreneurship programme organized by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the African Development Bank that when he became president, youth unemployment was put at 72 per cent, but that he reduced it to about 52 per cent. Now, it has ballooned to unmanageable proportion.” There is no gainsaying that the relationship between the two is already heading for a ruin. But the questions many political analysts are seeking an answer to are: Can Obasanjo stop Jonathan’s ambition for 2015? What will be the implications of this power game on Obasanjo’s political influence if he fails to stop Jonathan? Can the North also trust Obasanjo for any possible alliance towards the realization of their campaign for power shift? Can Jonathan call the bluff of his godfather and go unscathed?
Implication on Obasanjo’s influence
No doubt, Jonathan owns Obasanjo a debt of gratitude for being instrumental to what he is today. It was Obasanjo that propped him up from obscurity to political limelight. The former president was instrumental not only to his emergence as Vice President and later as president of Nigeria, but also as Deputy Governor of Bayelsa State. By guile and intrigue, it was Obasanjo that imposed the late President Umar Musa Yar’Adua as the presidential candidate of the PDP and single-handedly chose Jonathan as his running mate. Similarly, at the height of the confusion and imbroglio that followed the ill-health of the late Yar’Adua, Obasanjo was one of the state actors that spoke in favour of Jonathan’s emergence as substantive president.
The rest is history! But as they say, you cannot be a kingmaker and continue to hang around the corridors of power; otherwise, you may be the first object of target. By his continued struggle to be relevant in the scheme of things, Obasanjo appears to have lost the steam. And he probably must have seen it coming when he resigned his position as the Chairman, BOT of the PDP. Even at that, the tide of politics has not been in his favour. Since the outcome of the 2011 general elections in which the PDP lost the states in the South West, unfolding developments have clearly shown that Obasanjo’s voice is no long respected. Apart from the perceived marginalization of the zone in the sharing of political office, peace has never returned to the PDP, his Yoruba political enclave. Just recently, the raging crisis within the PDP in his home state, Ogun, got to a crescendo when a rival faction announced the suspension of the executive of the group loyal to him. Thus, confronting a sitting president in the circumstance may not possibly augur well for his future political relevance. Already, one of the alleged complaints of the former president is the refusal of President Jonathan to seek his opinion on key national issues.
With the brewing crisis of confidence, the administration could capitalize on the situation to deal with whatever is left of the goodwill of the former president, knowing full well that he has a weak home support. Perhaps, this may be part of the reasons why he (Obasanjo) is looking for an alliance with the North. It is on this note that many people are very suspicious of his recent launch of multi-million naira mosque at his Presidential library Complex. They see it as a smoke screen for political maneuvering. During the fundraiser, governors, leaders of the National Assembly and political heavy weights mostly of northern extraction gathered to lay the foundation stone of a mosque at the library complex. Even his estranged deputy, Atiku Abubakar, was not left out of the event.
There and then, he donated N5 million towards the project. Other prominent figures in attendance included: Governor of Sokoto State, Alhaji Aliyu Magatarkada Wamakko, his Kano State counterpart, Dr. Musa Rabiu Kwakwanso, Governor of Kebbi, Alhaji Saidu Dakingari and the Deputy Governor of Katsina State. More than N400 million was realized at the event. In a way, the fund-raiser provided the forum for Obasanjo to strategise for 2015. Already, there are speculations that he might have tipped Sule Lamido/Rotimi Amaechi for the PDP presidential and vice-presidential tickets in 2015. However, this insinuation has been dismissed by former president’s camp. The question still remains: How far can he go in this scheming? The answer lies in the womb of time.
Jonathan’s 2015 ambition
Although Jonathan has not openly declared his intention to take another shot at the presidency, some people are already flying the kite. If he is interested, it will certainly be difficult for any mortal to stop him. Apart from the power of incumbency, there are more than enough resources at his disposal to deploy and ensure that he gets the ticket. One major challenge he may have to grapple with, however, is the possibility of a strong northern candidate. Although that is not in sight for now, some prominent leaders of thought are already working on how to achieve a united front against the president’s ambition.
These are parts of the game plans that would shape the politics of the North in the years ahead. With Obasanjo as a willing ally, the battle may turn out to be tougher than expected. Besides, no politician has fought Obasanjo and got away with it. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who had fought the battle before can tell the story better. So also erstwhile Ogun State governor, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, former Speaker Umar Ghali Na’abah, the late Senate President, Chuba Okadigbo, former PDP National Chairman, Chief Audu Ogbeh, among others. But it is too early to predict who will be the winner or loser in this epic battle. Jonathan could turn out to be an exception. Time will tell!