Posts
If and when he decides to seek re-election, President Goodluck Jonathan will come up against a sturdy wall of opposition already being erected by northern politiciansWhat began as a battle for the control of a state chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is threatening to have wider implications. From Adamawa State broke a duel between Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, National Chairman of the party, and Murtala Nyako, governor of the state. By last week, the contest between the two grandees for control of the party in the state had pitted the Tukur-led National Working Committee, NWC, against the governors elected on the PDP platform. The tiff between Tukur and the governors began on 16 October, when the NWC announced the dissolution of the Adamawa State executive committee of the party led by Mijinyawa Kugama.
A statement signed by Olisa Metuh, PDP National
Jonathan: faces big opposition from the north in bid for a second term.
Kugama is widely regarded as Nyako’s stooge, ensuring that the party has been kept under the governor’s thumb–to the chagrin of PDP bigwigs opposed to him. Tukur, who has been positioning Anwal, his first son, as Nyako’s successor, had stealthily attempted to wrest the party from the governor even before his election as PDP National Chairman.
The dissolution of Adamawa State exco, done at the behest of Tukur in the run-in to the 24 November council elections, was a reaction to the fear that the party’s success at the polls would make Nyako’s hold on the party considerably firmer.
Indeed, Metuh accused the Kugama-led exco of disobeying the NWC, especially as regards the directive “to halt further steps towards the conduct of local government elections as agreed at a meeting of 9th October, 2012 between the NWC and the Adamawa State Working Committee”. He added that the Kugama-led exco did not only go ahead with the process, but also submitted a list of candidates to the State Independent National Electoral Commission without an approval from the NWC. The NWC then mandated an eight-man team, led by Ambassador Umar Damagu, to take over the running of the party in the state.
Nyako defied the NWC and continued to work with Kugama. A Yola High Court had also granted a motion exparte restraining the PDP, Tukur and the NWC from dissolving the Adamawa State exco pending the determination of the substantive suit filed by Kugama and 28 others. The plaintiffs are seeking a declaration that the dissolution of the state executive is a nullity.
And in the council elections, which held three weeks ago, Tukur’s worst fears were confirmed, as Nyako’s men swept the polls in all the local councils. Nyako then increased the pressure on Tukur, rallying other governors elected on the party’s platform against him. In a letter dated 10 December and addressed to the governors, Nyako urged them to oppose the dissolution of the Adamawa State exco of the party, warning that if they fail to do so, the chapters of the party in their respective states could experience the same fate.
Though some of the governors, led by Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State, were said to have intervened, Tukur remains unmoved, necessitating calls for direct intervention by President Goodluck Jonathan.
But it is not only in Adamawa that Jonathan needs to intervene. Many state chapters of the party are strife-riven, a development that poses grave dangers to Jonathan’s chances in the 2015 presidential election.
The prospect of an even bigger implosion within the party was raised at two events involving Jonathan and his deputy, Namadi Sambo, on 8 December. On that day, Jonathan’s younger brother, Meni, who died on 20 November, was buried in Otuoke, Bayelsa State, while Sambo gave out his two daughters at a wedding ceremony in Kaduna. Already, there are speculations of a feud between the two men. Authors of the speculations point to the demographic composition of attendees at the two events. At Otuoke for the burial were contractors, actors, some PDP bigwigs, cabinet members as well as South-East and South-South governors apart from Liyel Imoke of Cross River State.
Notably absent were governors of northern states and those from the Southwest.
The Northern governors preferred the company of Sambo. The guest list at the wedding fatiha, presided over by three clerics, brimmed with the biggest names on the northern political circuit. In attendance were former head of state, General Muhammadu Buhari; former military president, General Ibrahim Babangida, governors Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu (Niger), Abdulaziz Yari (Zamfara), Saidu Usman Dakingari (Kebbi), Ibrahim Shema (Katsina), Sule Lamido (Jigawa), Jonah Jang (Plateau) and Ibrahim Dankwambo (Gombe). Also present were Rochas Okorocha (Imo), Abiola Ajimobi (Oyo), former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Ghali Umar Na’Abba; Senator Ahmed Makarfi, and former Ogun State governor, Gbenga Daniel.
The absence of all PDP governors from the North at Otuoke and their presence in Kaduna is held up as evidence of a disagreement, which is rumoured to have developed on account of Sambo’s interest in the presidency. Though Presidency sources dismissed this, some suggest it is indicative of the northern governors’ readiness to rally round the Vice-President as the North’s standard bearer in the battle for the PDP presidential ticket in 2015.
In the past, Sambo denied harbouring a presidential ambition for 2015. Some sources, however, said he will run only if Jonathan keeps to the promise he allegedly made to Northern governors in 2010 that he will only spend one term in office.
Working on the belief that the President will quit in 2015, Sambo’s supporters, in October 2011, went to the Northwest zonal meeting of PDP in Kaduna with vehicles, bearing the photographs of the Vice-President and with the inscription ‘Sambo Project 2015’. The vehicles were prominently stationed at the premises of General Hassan Katsina Hall, venue of the event, which was also chaired by Sambo. Some of the leaders at the event argued that with his position as the Vice President, Sambo has assumed the status of leader of the North and if Jonathan is not contesting in 2015, he should be supported for the presidency.
Supporters of Sambo’s presumed bid also argue that it will help the Northwest complete its eight-year term cut short by the death of former President Umaru Yar’Adua. The next day, newspapers ran various headlines categorically stating that Sambo had launched a campaign to contest the presidency in 2015. “The insinuations making the rounds in the media that Vice-President Namadi Sambo may be preparing to contest for the presidency in 2015 smacks of mischief and is the figment of the imagination of some people,” Malam Umar Sani, spokesperson to the VP, said in response to the headlines. While not denying the presence of campaign vehicles with inscription ‘Sambo 2015 Project’ and the youths that carried placards and wore T-shirts also conspicuously marked, ‘Sambo 2015 Project’ at the venue of the zonal congress, he described it “as a normal tradition reminiscent of the funfair accorded to such personalities heralding the welcome to political events such as the PDP Northwest zonal meeting”.
Jonathan is yet to confirm whether he will run in 2015. When asked if he will contest for the presidency in 2015 during his last media chat, Jonathan described the question as premature and diversionary. “Four years is a very short time for someone to make an impact. Immediately you start talking about elections, you will actually be heating up the polity. Before you ask whether Mr. President will re-contest for a second term or not, wait till 2014,” he said.
Not many, if any, believe that he is uninterested in seeking re-election. One of the pointers is the President’s recent assertion that before the end of his current term in office, Nigerians will rate him as the nation’s best president on the basis of performance. Doyin Okupe, Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Affairs, spoke in the same vein in a recent interview: “As an insider, I know what he has been doing since he took over as President of Nigeria. I am very certain in my mind that Nigerians are going to applaud him and even if he does not want to run for election in 2015, Nigerians are going to force him to run again because of the level of his performance.” Okupe added that Jonathan would have delivered on his promise of uninterrupted power supply, security and infrastructure among others by 2014. This magazine also learnt that the President’s strategy include appeasement of the North with projects and special initiatives.
Metuh told this magazine last week that PDP will start the issue of second tenure for its office holders towards the end of next year and whether the President will be the flagbearer of the party will depend on the party’s assessment of his performance. “In America, nobody challenged Obama in the Democratic Party, so if PDP members think the President is doing well and the President said he is going to run again, do you think anybody will run against him in the PDP?” Metuh said in a tone that suggests that the PDP presidential ticket is there for the President to take.
Aides and supporters of the President continue to insist that he has the constitutional right to seek a second term in office. “The constitution is clear about it; Mr. President has right to contest if that is his wish. Nobody can abridge his constitutional right. Everybody has the constitutional right to aspire to the highest office and that includes Mr. President. The constitution does not prevent him,” Ahmed Gulak, Special Adviser to the President on Political Matters, recently told journalists.
But a group championing a return of the presidency to the North in 2015 is convinced that Jonathan is ineligible. Led by Dr. Junaid Muhammed, Chairman, Peoples Salvation Front, the group, operating under the name Committee of Concerned Northern Professionals, Politicians, Academics and Businessmen, CCNPPAB, wants the courts to determine Jonathan’s eligibility.
At a meeting held earlier in the year, Muhammed said any attempt by the President to contest in the 2015 election will amount to the type of tenure elongation that was sought by former President Olusegun Obasanjo. “This single-minded search for Jonathan’s tenure elongation will be fought and defeated using all constitutional means available,” he said.
While Muhammed continues to argue that Jonathan will be violating the constitution if he seeks for a fresh tenure, one Cyriacus Njoku had some months ago asked the court to give its opinion on the issue. In the suit filed in Abuja, Njoku asked the court to determine whether Section 135(2) of the Constitution, which specifies a period of four years in office for the President, is only available or applicable to a person elected on the basis of an actual election or includes one in which a person assumes the position of president by operation of law.
Njoku, a PDP member, said he intends to contest for the presidency in 2015 and also wants the court to determine whether Section 137(1) (b) of the Constitution, which provides that a person shall not be qualified for election to the office of President if he has been elected to such office at any two previous elections, applies to Jonathan, who first took an oath of office as substantive President on 6 May 2010 and took a second oath as President on 29 May 2011.
Njoku asked the court to declare that the President’s tenure of office began in 2010 and will end in 2015 after taking his second oath of office on 29 May 2011.
In their separate preliminary objections, both President Jonathan and the PDP described Njoku’s suit as “frivolous and highly vexatious”, saying it ought to be dismissed in its entirety as grossly lacking in merit. “President Jonathan’s status and position is formidably backed by the 1999 Constitution. The Constitution of Nigeria only makes provisions for a president to contest for not more than two terms of four years each. The constitution recognises the President’s tenure of office to be four years,” PDP said in its objections even as it argued that Jonathan had not indicated or announced that he would contest.
This is Njoku’s second attempt at stopping Jonathan. In August 2010, he attempted to stop PDP from allowing Jonathan to participate in the PDP presidential primaries of January 2011. Njoku approached a court and urged it to declare Jonathan’s intention to seek the party’s ticket as contrary to Article7.2 (c) of the PDP 2009 Constitution (as amended). He argued that by virtue of the provision, the PDP presidential ticket had been zoned to the Northern part of the country till 2015. Justice Lawan Gumi, who heard the suit, wasted no time in dismissing it.
There are indications that Njoku’s case will suffer the same fate. The anticipation of this outcome has given rise in the past few months to secret meetings between elders, activists and politicians of Northern extraction with singular determination of ensuring that Jonathan will not spend a day longer than 29 May 2015 in office.
A Kaduna-based politician, Musa Abdullahi Kajuru, told this magazine that northerners are unwilling to concede power to any southerner come 2015. This, he said, has been responsible for the political manoeuvring and gang-up to give Jonathan a good fight should he declare his intention to vie. “Nigerians need to know that we decided to let Jonathan remain in office as the president because, we thought he was a gentleman that will respect an agreement. But now, we’ve realised that he’s a man desperate for power. So, we know what to do,” Kajuru said.
In the bid to wrest power from Jonathan , the North, according to sources, is already shopping for candidates within the PDP to challenge Jonathan for the ticket.
After their meeting in Kaduna on 17 May, the 19 northern governors indicated their desire to work together to ensure that the region produces the president in 2015. Governor Babangida Aliyu, Chairman, Northern Governors’ Forum, who spoke on behalf of the group, said: “We must be united more than ever to go into the 2015 elections as one entity with the aim of producing the president.”
With their control of delegates to conventions, the governors are decently positioned to make life difficult for Jonathan. Aliyu is one of the seven Northern governors elected on the PDP platform said to be eyeing the presidency.
Others include Sule Lamido of Jigawa State, Isa Yuguda of Bauchi State, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State, Ibrahim Shema of Katsina State, Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State and Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto State. However, choosing one of them, as confirmed by Muhammed, has been difficult. He added that this may not happen very soon, as none of the seven governors has shown a desire to step down for another. “This is because the last time we tried to get a consensus candidate for the North, it was the northern governors who scuttled the plan. About seven northern governors, who have ambition to become President, have been busy scuttling one another’s ambition. So, the North has not picked a candidate and in my opinion, it will not happen soon,” Muhammed told a national daily.
Apart from the governors, another option for the North is former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who contested for the PDP ticket with Jonathan. Atiku, who was the Northern consensus candidate in an arrangement midwifed by the Adamu Ciroma-led Northern Elders Political Forum, has not announced his interest in the 2015 race. But Atiku, who is increasingly returning to public consciousness, has repeatedly asserted that zoning is dead in PDP with violation of the clause by Jonathan. There are indications that he may throw his hat into the ring again. Lawal Kaita, a former governor of Kaduna State and an associate of Atiku, said the former VP is still interested in the presidency. He added that the North is not ready to concede the 2015 presidency “to either the Southeast, which is agitating for it, or any other geopolitical zone in the South”.
Yet another option lies in teaming up with Congress of Progressive Change, CPC, led by General Muhammadu Buhari, a smash hit in the Muslim North. CPC currently controls only one state in the North. But this is not because it was not popular, but due to the mismanagement of the primaries for the selection of its candidates in the run-up to the 2011 elections. Outside the North, the CPC is limp. It may, however, benefit from the proposed alliance with other opposition groups, notably the Action Congress of Nigeria, which controls the Southwest, and the All Nigeria People’s Party, ANPP.
The realisability of the dream of a merger, analysts reckon, will depend on whether Buhari re-contests or puts forward a Northern politician that will be marketable outside the North. It will also depend on if ACN is willing to concede the presidential ticket to the CPC.
Analysts contend that the CPC/ACN arrangement can ride on widespread disenchantment with Jonathan across the North and in some parts of the South. Jonathan, on the other hand, can be assured of support from the Southeast, South-south and North Central. Yet, there are those who believe that the ongoing effort by the North to challenge Jonathan is doomed to fail, as it is being done without any serious coordination and unity of purpose.
Last week, a Northern group, Arewa Citizens Action for Change, ACAC, urged Northern governors, particularly those in the PDP, not to support Jonathan in 2015. “There is an indication from our survey that if a Northern candidate does not emerge as the presidential standard-bearer of PDP, the party will witness an unimaginable defection for an available northern candidate irrespective of his party inclination,” Gombe State Coordinator of ACAC, Muhammad Tasiu Pantami, said at a joint press briefing with Arewa Youth Development Foundation and Arewa Students Forum last Tuesday.
He based his call on what he described as insensitivity of the Jonathan administration to security challenges confronting the North.
But will the Northern governors ditch Jonathan?
No comments:
Post a Comment